The AFL season is heating up, and with six rounds left, the race for the top six is intensifying. The wildcard finals are set to be a thrilling affair, with Geelong facing off against GWS Giants in a potential upset. Here's a breakdown of the remaining fixtures and the latest projections.
Fremantle vs Brisbane Lions
Fremantle is mathematically locked into the finals, and with a two-game lead over Sydney, they're near-certainties to be minor premiers. The Dockers will need to avoid a complete collapse to secure a home qualifying final. Brisbane, with a slightly easier remaining draw, is expected to finish ahead of Adelaide and Melbourne, making the top four.
Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn
Sydney remains two games clear of third place and should finish second if they win at least one of their next two games. Hawthorn, with a strong grip on a top-four finish, has a challenging draw but should win their next three games to build a lead over the chasing pack.
Geelong vs GWS Giants
Geelong's recent losses have been collectively terrible, and they're struggling to make the top four. They face a home elimination final at best, and a wildcard game at worst. GWS Giants, on the other hand, have been on a hot streak, beating five top-half teams and three bottom-half teams. They're projected to play finals and could face Geelong again in the wildcard round.
Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood
The Bulldogs need to keep winning against lesser sides to secure 12 wins. Collingwood, with a challenging remaining draw, is fighting for a wildcard spot. An upset over one of the top four contenders could be enough for the Magpies, but they'll need to win their next two games and hope for a few upsets.
Melbourne vs Adelaide Crows
Melbourne, with a challenging remaining draw, is two wins clear inside the top six. They'll need to win their next game against Geelong to avoid a wildcard spot. Adelaide, with a tricky remaining draw, is expected to finish fifth but could still reach fourth on percentage.
GWS Giants vs St Kilda
GWS Giants, with a solid path to 12 wins, are projected to play finals. They have four winnable games that would get them to the magic number. St Kilda, with a reasonable path to 12 wins, is back inside the top 10 and could face GWS in the wildcard round.
Carlton vs North Melbourne
Carlton, with a reasonable path to 12 wins, is in a four-team race for the last two wildcard spots. They'll need to beat Collingwood and St Kilda, and win against the Suns and Bulldogs. North Melbourne, with a wildcard dream almost over, is struggling to reach 10 wins.
Gold Coast Suns vs Western Bulldogs
Gold Coast Suns, with a challenging remaining draw, is projected to finish in the bottom four. Western Bulldogs, with a likely win over Richmond, needs to pinch one of their other five remaining games to play finals.
Richmond vs Hawthorn
Richmond, with a challenging remaining draw, is projected to finish last. Hawthorn, with an easier remaining draw, is expected to finish third.
Essendon vs GWS Giants
Essendon, with a challenging remaining draw, is projected to finish last. GWS Giants, with a solid path to 12 wins, is expected to play finals.
The Projected Final Ladder
- Fremantle (19.35 projected wins)
- Sydney Swans (17.4)
- Hawthorn (16.05)
- Brisbane Lions (15.2)
- Adelaide Crows (14.65)
- Melbourne (14.35)
- Geelong (13.45)
- Western Bulldogs (12.85)
- Collingwood (11.95)
- GWS Giants (11.5)
- St Kilda (11.35)
- Carlton (10.85)
- North Melbourne (9.65)
- Gold Coast Suns (9.6)
- Port Adelaide (8.3)
- West Coast Eagles (5.55)
- Richmond (3)
- Essendon (1.95)
